After months of declining daily numbers in Niagara, the region's acting medical officer is cautioning that the rapid increase of COVID-19 mutations could increase the strain on the already pressured health care system.
Dr. Mustafa Hirji said during a media briefing on Monday that he is concerned that an increase in COVID-19 cases in Niagara is to likely to occur later this month, following the provincial projections that predict a sharp spike in cases as the more fast-spreading variants of concern take hold in Canada.
Current screenings indicate around 30 percent of cases in Ontario right now are variants of concern.
The number is rising, while cases of the original COVID-19 virus appears to be dropping.
The same trend, although in smaller scale, is seen in Niagara, Hirji said.
"Two weeks ago we identified the first variant cases in Niagara, and we are well over 60 now. There has been an upward trajectory of variant cases every day."
While vaccinations are underway, with 11 planned locations for local immunization clinics announced last week for the final phase of the provincial rollout, Hirji said he is concerned that Niagara's vaccinations won't reach some groups that are more likely to be hospitalized in time.
"The majority of hospitalizations is in the 60 - 79 age group, but there is a big chunk of individuals in their 40s and 50s that seem to be hospitalized. We are in a race to get doses into arms, but I'm not sure that vaccinations could avoid a surge in hospitalizations if we get a third wave."
Local ICU occupancy is currently at 85 percent - only five percent below the provincial target.
"If cases start rising rapidly, between 5 and 10 percent may need care in the ICU," Hirji said.
"It has come down and flattened out, but we never brought it back to a low level. A third wave while ICU occupancy still is pretty high will be a concern, in terms of pressure on our health care system."
Niagara has been in the Red-Control zone for a week, after remaining in Grey longer than most other regions following high active case numbers.
