While Niagara is expected to be placed under the 'yellow', or protect-status of the new provincial COVID-19 grading system before the weekend is over, the region's acting medical officer of health says it is likely that further restrictions could be imposed this fall.
In the last week, several days have seen increases in high double-digits, averaging out around 25 cases per day.
"If this goes up to about 30-35 per day, it will probably be the tipping point," said Dr. Mustafa Hirji.
The 'orange', or 'restrict'-stage would mean harder capacity restrictions at places with indoor dining, closing of places like pools, and time-limits on gym-visits.
Niagara is currently in the 'green'-stage, which carries the lightest amount of restrictions, but Hirji said it is likely an administrative mistake, as the provincial metrics for that level isn't met due to the recent increases in active cases.
While taking away some opportunity for the virus to spread via restrictions, the key drivers of Niagara's new infection are 20-somethings who are spending time with friends, co-workers and at house parties, said Hirji.
"Young people are challenging to motivate. One thing we are seeing in our data is that they are a group that is not very health-conscious, and isn't putting a value on things that is good for their health."
He points to a single, large cluster of young people recently identified by Public Health, through which the virus traveled and eventually made its way into two long-term care and retirement homes that are still dealing with the outbreaks.
"It went through a few generations, via bars and gatherings. We were able to find a direct connection to an initial social event," said Hirji.
From the initial event, it took around three weeks before the virus had reached a long-term care home, prompting Public Health to issue a reminder to report unauthorized house parties that exceed the limits of 10 people set up by the province.
"For us in Public Health, we are pretty close to not being able to do contact tracing to the point we are right now, and will have to start cutting corners to keep up," said Hirji.
NRPH reported 15 cases on Thursday.
