While cases are dropping across the board in Niagara, the region’s top doctor is looking across the Atlantic with increasing concern, as the so-called Indian double-mutation of the COVID-19 virus is taking a hold in the U.K.
“In the next month or two, that variant will be dominating in the U.K,” Dr. Mustafa Hirji told regional councillors in a weekly update on the progress of the pandemic, pointing out that the latest variant of concern is believed to be much more contagious than other variants, partly explaining the devastating third wave that has killed thousands in India in recent weeks, and that it will soon catch up to the U.K variant, which is still dominating new cases.
Hirji said that while official statistics only show one confirmed case of the Indian mutation in Niagara, it isn’t an accurate reflection of what is going on, as there still is no reliable test to be used widely in Ontario to determine the presence of that variant.
The region has instead been using one slot to report unspecified variants, as well as a slot for ‘other variant by screening or sequencing.’
Combined, the two categories constitute over 900 cases. In the last week, the mutation with origin in Brazil jumped from only a single case to 6 on Friday.
“So it is possible that a whole bunch of those (unsequenced cases, editors note.) are in fact the variant that originated in India,” said Hirji.
With the suspected more contagious profile, and only a roughly 30 percent protection with only one dose of the vaccine, Hirji said he is concerned that the Indian variant could pose a threat to Ontario’s downward trajectory if it would begin to spread during the reopening.
“I’m pretty worried about what that is going to do,” Hirji stated, adding that Canada probably will see a similar evening-out of variant cases between the U.K variant and its Indian counterpart once the province moves forward with the reopning.
The answer to the looming threat - and the pandemic at large - is spelled ‘a second dose,’ as both the Astra Zeneca as well as Pfizer vaccine have proven to offer good protection against the Indian variant.
Hirji said vaccination coverage in Niagara is progressing well, with 53 percent of all residents having received at least one dose of the vaccine as of Friday.
The province is still under a stay-at-home order until June 2, when it is set to expire.
Hirji said on Friday that he is hoping to see another extension, and a gradual re-opening beginning mid-June.
