It’s a frosty prophesy, which seems to have come true—at least so far.
The 2023 Old Farmer’s Almanac – Canadian Edition predicted that winter would arrive early in Ontario, with cold temperatures from western Canada migrating into southern Ontario by mid to late November. And it’s likely to worsen as the season progresses, with much of Ontario experiencing increased snow, according to Janice Stillman, the almanac’s editor. “Frosty, frigid, freezing” temperatures should be expected, with several unusual “mini-deep-freezes” throughout many parts of the country, “which will sneak up and surprise with their intensity,” she wrote.
True to the almanac, southern Ontario turned milder with a few showers of wet snow or rain for the holidays.
For some 230 years, The Old Farmer’s Almanac has offered weather forecasts to readers in preparation for the season ahead. Released each September, it has been published continuously since 1792. The publication’s founder was Robert Bailey Thomas, who based it on classic American compendiums such as Benjamin Franklin’s Poor Richard’s Almanac. In its second year, the almanac sold 9000 copies at four cents each.
A Canadian edition of the almanac first appeared in 1982. With chapters touching on astrology, astronomy, farming, folklore, food, gardening, genealogy, home remedies, nature, sports, and of course weather, the stories contained in the 2023 edition include fixes for hay fever sufferers, dishes from a Ukrainian Christmas, the myth and mystery of mistletoe, a primer on organizing family treasures, secrets of the Zodiac, hints for picking your perfect perennials, and a step-by-step guide to hatching chickens.
Traditionally, a hole was drilled in the top left corner of every almanac copy, allowing it to be hung conveniently on a nail or hook for easy access. In the 1990s, the editors learned that the annual cost of drilling the hole came to $40,000, and discontinued the practice as a cost-saving measure. Subscribers rebelled, however, and the almanac hole drilling was reinstated.
The Almanac’s weather predictions, which are prepared a year and a half in advance, are broken into regions within the United States and Canada. The forecasting formula is a well-kept secret and has been refined over the years, drawing on solar activity, astronomy cycles, and historical weather patterns. Few people have seen the formula, which is kept in a locked box at the Almanac offices in Dublin, New Hampshire.
With such a long lead-time, however, a number of independent analyses have concluded that the weather predictions in The Old Farmer’s Almanac are not very accurate, hovering just over 50 percent, about the same as a randomly generated forecast or flipping a coin. The Almanac disputes this number, and argues that its overall, combined accuracy rate for all the regions was some 85 percent in 2022, above its “traditional” accuracy rate of 80 percent.
The journal’s 2022–2023 Canadian winter forecast summary for Ontario suggests that much of the province will see increased snow, with southern Ontario being colder than normal, with above-normal precipitation and snowfall. The coldest periods will be early and late January, and late February. April and May should be near normal, with slightly above-normal precipitation. Summer temperatures and rainfall are expected to be slightly above normal. The hottest periods will be mid July and early August, with September and October slightly warmer than normal.